Program

Keynote Speakers

Dr. Woo has written widely on risk analysis, and is author of the book, The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes, published by Imperial College Press. He was a top mathematics graduate of Cambridge University, completed his Ph.D. at MIT as a Kennedy Scholar, and was a member of the Harvard Society of Fellows.

Dr. Gordon Woo is a research scholar specializing in mathematical aspects of catastrophe risk modeling, primarily within the insurance industry. He has extensive experience on quantitative risk assessment at nuclear, chemical, petroleum, and military installations. In 2004, he was named by Treasury & Risk magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in finance.

Dr. Wilson’s pioneering efforts for Risk Analysis started to bloom in the early 1970s, when he became interested in comparing risks of nuclear power to problems caused by other forms of electric power generation. Starting in 1972 Richard Wilson became a leader in the developing field Risk Analysis. This led to his active concern in many subjects, including Radiation, Chemical Carcinogens, Air Pollution, Potential Climate Change, Arsenic and Nuclear Weapons.

Dr. Richard Wilson is a Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics, emeritus at Harvard University. Dr. Wilson has authored more than 900 papers, been a consultant to dozens of governmental agencies and academic institutes, and lectured around the world on energy, risk, and environmental policy. He was a founding member of the Society for Risk Analysis and in 1993 won the SRA’s distinguished Achievement Award.

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Abstracts of the talks can be found here.

Details of the Program Schedule for ChaRisMa’10 is as follows:

Keynote lecture by Dr. Gordon Woo

CHARACTERISTICS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

The study of natural hazards has tended to be fragmented into the scientific disciplines of meteorology, hydrology, seismology, volcanology, geomorphology etc. Apart from academic focus on the theory and phenomenology of specific hazards, there is much to be gained from a broad synoptic view of the characteristics of natural hazards. What have earthquakes and solar flares in common? How can earthquakes cause flooding, or an outbreak of plague?

In this lecture, the common geoscientific elements shared by natural hazards will be highlighted, and the causal links and triggering mechanisms between different types of hazard event will be presented. Implications for the management, mitigation and public communication of natural hazards will be discussed.

Keynote lecture by Dr. Richard Wilson

Historically mankind has considered natural disasters as distinct from human disasters and this has changed only slowly. Over 2000 years ago a bad storm occurred in the eastern Mediterranean. Who was responsible? and the issue arose: who was responsible for it? Jonah 1:7 records the procedure:

“Come, and let us cast lots, that we may know for whose cause this evil is upon us. So they cast lots, and the lot fell upon Jonah”

In 1930 lawyers still distinguished Acts of God (for which no one was to blame) from Acts of men where blame could be assigned and compensation sought.

1970 onwards we have many improvements in scientific analyses.

We begin to foresee natural disasters. We can look for precursors. We can take precautions. We can be ready for emergency action. There is no need to blame God for human carelessness.

The distinction between a natural event and one cause by human carelessness is small. They are best considered together. Drawing lots is no longer considered appropriate but a proper probabilistic calculation is. We now recognize that rare events do happen.

I will outline and illustrate many of the analyses we now use.

Dr. Kenneth Hewitt, Cold Regions Research Centre, Wilfrid Laurier University
Dr. Kenneth Hewitt was a professor of geography and environmental studies at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, from 1976 until his retirement in 2002. Dr. Hewitt earned his BA and MA at Cambridge University, and his PhD at London University. He is a founding member of the Cold Regions Research Centre. He has been the recipient of many research awards. He was proclaimed Wilfrid Laurier University Research Professor for 1988-1989, and in 1991 Hewitt received the Award for Scholarly Distinction in Geography from the Canadian Association of Geographers.

Keynote lecture by Dr. Kenneth Hewitt
Risky landscapes: adaptation in catastrophically generated habitats, Karakoram Himalaya
The talk looks at geohazards, especially the role of massive rock slope failures, in environmental and cultural context. Geohazards usually arise within the broader earth surface environment to which societies and their livelihoods are adapted. The intertwined benefits and dangers of flood plains, volcanic soils, or coastal zones offer obvious examples. Since great rockslides will destroy any living thing or built structure in their path, scientific studies have focused on the hazards they pose – which certainly are considerable in many mountain regions. However, in the transHimalayan valleys of the upper Indus basin, most of the habitable land also derives from hundreds of massive, more or less ancient rock avalanches, and landforms controlled by their blocking of valleys. Hundreds of villages and some small towns sit amid the rubble of rock avalanches, also modern infrastructure and ancient cultural sites. Most of cultivated land lies on river terraces, old lakebeds and alluvial fans resulting from landslide dams on the rivers. The more frequent, locally damaging debris flows, floods, and avalanches are mainly secondary hazards relating to ‘cycles of risks’ that follow from the large landslides. The cycle can be decades to millennia in length, and involves geomorphic adjustments to, and exposure of settlements in, landslide-fragmented valleys. The talk will outline the science behind the recent discovery of the landslides, but focus on how traditional land uses and modern developments are adapted, or not, to these catastrophically generated landscapes. Local stories and actions show the inhabitants had recognized the landslides long ago, and developed a ‘risk averse’ cultural geography with respect to the more frequent hazards. However, modernization is also undermining traditional approaches and creating new dangers for some, if benefits for others. The risks of living in such a habitat were dramatically revealed by the January 4th, 2010 Atabad, Hunza landslide. Other evidence suggests the great landslides are not just things of the past, nor so rare as not to threaten present-day schemes. The value of addressing geohazards in their landscape and development context is underlined.